第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后，德國(guó)和日本的復(fù)蘇非常漫長(zhǎng)。兩國(guó)均經(jīng)受了屈辱的軍事占領(lǐng)，并做出不再威脅和平的保證，才重新獲得主權(quán)。德國(guó)新憲法規(guī)定，只有在防衛(wèi)或在集體安全協(xié)作時(shí)才有權(quán)動(dòng)用軍事力量。日本憲法第九條則更進(jìn)一步，“永遠(yuǎn)放棄以國(guó)權(quán)發(fā)動(dòng)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、武力威脅或武力行使作為解決國(guó)際爭(zhēng)端的手段。”

戰(zhàn)后國(guó)際格局正在我們眼前瓦解。德國(guó)和日本經(jīng)歷過二戰(zhàn)的一輩人逐漸逝去。崛起的后輩們以新的方式定義他們的根本利益；1989年以后，他們無法再指望美國(guó)替他們?nèi)?zhàn)斗。事實(shí)上，美國(guó)發(fā)動(dòng)的軍事干預(yù)——比如伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)——可能極大地?fù)p害了德國(guó)與日本的國(guó)家利益。

間諜丑聞嚴(yán)重傷害了美德關(guān)系

美國(guó)與德日之間逐漸疏遠(yuǎn)，如美國(guó)找不到一條具有創(chuàng)造性的馭國(guó)之道，一些具體問題會(huì)使長(zhǎng)期存在的諒解遭到更深的質(zhì)疑。不出一二十年，戰(zhàn)后合作伙伴很可能不再志同道合。多年來，美國(guó)與德日的伙伴關(guān)系一直是聯(lián)結(jié)當(dāng)代世界的樞紐，正因如此，奧巴馬政府才會(huì)理所當(dāng)然地假定這種關(guān)系將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定；也正因如此，五角大樓和中情局才得以無視政治根本面，主導(dǎo)美國(guó)的關(guān)鍵對(duì)外政策。

上周的新聞已向美國(guó)證明，繼續(xù)以自動(dòng)駕駛模式應(yīng)對(duì)與德日的關(guān)系，將是危險(xiǎn)的。讓我們先說德國(guó)。在冷戰(zhàn)期間，為了對(duì)抗共產(chǎn)主義的威脅，中央情報(bào)局曾滲透西德政府。如果說這還算名正言順的話，那么時(shí)至今日，普京針對(duì)德國(guó)的間諜活動(dòng)已不構(gòu)成重大威脅，我們應(yīng)該相信德國(guó)完全有能力應(yīng)對(duì)?？芍星榫謪s無視基本前提，對(duì)德國(guó)的監(jiān)控一點(diǎn)沒落下。

更糟糕的是，當(dāng)默克爾要求中情局柏林站站長(zhǎng)離開德國(guó)時(shí)，美國(guó)政府?dāng)[出了一副不屑一顧的姿態(tài)——認(rèn)為中情局的作為符合“情報(bào)界”的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)作業(yè)程序，默克爾的公開指責(zé)乃小題大做。奧巴馬本應(yīng)該借此機(jī)會(huì)好好安撫德國(guó)——要知道，只有27%的德國(guó)人認(rèn)為美國(guó)“值得信賴”，而有多達(dá)46%德國(guó)人視美國(guó)為“具有侵略性的大國(guó)”。

美國(guó)支持安倍解禁集體自衛(wèi)權(quán)，將會(huì)助長(zhǎng)日本野心。圖為今年4月，安倍在壽司店請(qǐng)奧巴馬喝清酒

在日本問題上，美國(guó)國(guó)家安全機(jī)構(gòu)的傾向?qū)⒃斐筛咂茐男缘挠绊?。日本首相安倍晉三是個(gè)頑固的民族主義者，在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，自民黨極力抹黑和平憲法，宣稱其為美占時(shí)期麥克阿瑟非法強(qiáng)加于日本的畸形產(chǎn)物。安倍的第一個(gè)目標(biāo)是憲法和平條款。一開始，他試圖通過憲法框架內(nèi)的公投來修訂憲法。在這一舉措招致輿論和議會(huì)重重反對(duì)后，他改弦易轍，設(shè)法通過違憲手段達(dá)到同樣的目的。

7月1日，安倍悍然推翻前兩代人的憲法解釋，宣布其政府將“重新解釋”憲法第九條，允許日本擁有憲法聲明將“永遠(yuǎn)”放棄的“武力威脅或武力行使”權(quán)。

此舉已引發(fā)自1960年代以來最大的抗議示威活動(dòng)，并招致日本民眾的極力反對(duì)。作為回應(yīng)，日本政府許諾將進(jìn)行更慎重的討論，并修改了原定于九月執(zhí)行的立法計(jì)劃。

如果美國(guó)坐視安倍成功修憲，他對(duì)憲法激進(jìn)的修改將為自民黨開啟先河，而后者早欲破除日本憲法對(duì)政治和公民權(quán)利的根本承諾。茲事體大、攸關(guān)者眾，數(shù)月后日本將迎來其現(xiàn)代史上最重要的大辯論之一。

在此關(guān)鍵性時(shí)刻，美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)哈格爾選擇了介入——可他竟然站在錯(cuò)誤的立場(chǎng)上。在上周五美國(guó)軍方的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，他宣稱美國(guó)政府“大力支持”安倍政府“大膽的、歷史性的、標(biāo)志性的決定”，對(duì)其涉及的嚴(yán)重的憲法問題竟只字未提。

哈格爾表態(tài)對(duì)美國(guó)的標(biāo)志性意義，并不亞于安倍修憲對(duì)日本的意義——它推翻了前兩代美國(guó)人極力促成的憲法秩序程序。鑒于安倍晉三逆襲憲法的劃時(shí)代意義，美國(guó)的立場(chǎng)輪不到哈格爾在五角大樓新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上來宣布。日本修憲將給亞洲自由民主的未來造成毀滅性打擊，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)應(yīng)在與國(guó)務(wù)卿深入商議后，由奧巴馬本人在白宮針對(duì)此事表態(tài)。

但克里和奧巴馬都忙于在中東和其他地方救火，沒工夫思考宏觀戰(zhàn)略的大問題。德國(guó)間諜丑聞與日本修憲這兩件事，均反映出美國(guó)無意反思調(diào)整戰(zhàn)后伙伴關(guān)系，一再縱容國(guó)家安全機(jī)構(gòu)染指重大對(duì)外政策。

上周的新聞為美國(guó)敲響了警鐘。奧巴馬政府必須學(xué)會(huì)分辨輕重緩急。美國(guó)若不重新思考二戰(zhàn)后建立伙伴關(guān)系，等待我們的將是一個(gè)日益威權(quán)的日本和與我們離心離德的德國(guó)——二十世紀(jì)美國(guó)最偉大的遺產(chǎn)將毀于一旦。

（本文原刊于2014年7月15日赫芬頓世界郵報(bào)，原標(biāo)題America's Tragic Turn in Germany and Japan；觀察者網(wǎng)楊晗軼/譯，翻頁查看英文原文）

America's Tragic Turn in Germany and Japan

Bruce Ackerman

It's taken a long time for Germany and Japan to recover from the Second World War. After enduring the indignity of military occupation, they regained sovereignty only by guaranteeing against future threats to peace. Germany's new constitution only authorized military force in self-defense or in collaboration with collective security agreements. Japan's Article Nine went further, "forever renounc[ing] ... the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes."

This post-war settlement is unraveling before our eyes. Germans and Japanese who lived through the 1940s are passing away. Rising generations are defining their fundamental interests in new ways; and, after 1989, they can't count on the United States to fight on their behalf. Indeed, American military interventions may be profoundly damaging to their national interests, as the Iraqi tragedy suggests.

The stage has been set for an escalating cycle of estrangement. Without creative statecraft, particular problems will provoke deeper doubts about long-established understandings. Within a decade or two, post-war partners may well be viewing one another with deep suspicion. Yet, precisely because the American partnerships with Germany and Japan have been fixtures of the modern world, the Obama Administration implicitly supposes that they will continue to remain stable in the future -- allowing the Pentagon and CIA to dominate key decisions without rethinking political fundamentals.

The last week's news demonstrates the danger of proceeding on auto-pilot. Begin with Germany. During the Cold War, it made sense for the CIA to counter the on-going Communist effort to infiltrate the West German government. But we should trust modern Germany to handle the far lesser threats posed by Putin's espionage operations. Yet the CIA continues with business-as-usual, without rethinking basic premises.

Worse yet, when Angela Merkel responded by demanding the departure of the CIA's chief of mission, the administration was dismissive -- expressing annoyance that Merkel had publicly denounced a practice that the "intelligence community" views as standard-operating-procedure. Obama should instead view Merkel's gesture as an occasion to take dramatic steps to reassure a country in which only 27% of the public views the United States as trustworthy, and 46% consider it an aggressive power.

The national security mindset is having yet more damaging effects in Japan. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is an unreconstructed nationalist, who is leading his Liberal Democratic Party on a campaign to discredit Japan's post-war Constitution as an illegitimate imposition of the MacCarthur occupation. His first target is the Peace Article, which he initially sought to repudiate by calling a referendum as provided under the Constitution. When this initiative generated broad popular and parliamentary resistance, he switched gears and is now trying to achieve the same end by unconstitutional means.

On July 1, Abe announced that his government would "reinterpret" Article Nine to allow the "the threat or use of force" that the Constitution renounced "forever," repudiating two generations of contrary legal understanding.

This move has precipitated the largest protest demonstrations since the 1960s, as well as dramatic shows of public disapproval in opinion polls. In response, the government has revised its plan to push through implementing legislation in September, and has now promised a more deliberate debate.

If Abe is allowed to succeed, his radical reinterpretation will serve as a precedent for the Liberal Democratic Party's announced plans to break free of Japan's constitutional commitments to fundamental political and civil rights. With the stakes so high, the coming months will see one of the most important debates in modern Japanese history.

Yet this is just the moment that Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has chosen to intervene -- and on the wrong side. At a Pentagon news conference last Friday, he announced the administration's "strong support" for the "bold, historic, landmark decision" of the Abe government, without mentioning the grave constitutional issues involved.

This announcement represents a landmark for the United States no less than Japan -- repudiating a constitutional order that America has helped promote for two generations. Given the epochal significance of Abe's constitutional coup, it should not have been left to Hagel to announce America's position at a Pentagon press conference. The president himself should have addressed the matter at the White House, after consulting with his Secretary of State on its devastating impact on the future of liberal democracy in Asia.

But Kerry and Obama are too busy fighting fires in the Middle East and elsewhere to focus on large questions of grand strategy. As in the case of the German spy scandal, they are allowing the national security establishment to proceed without rethinking the terms of the post-war partnership.

Last week's news was a wake-up call. The administration must learn to distinguish the urgent from the truly fundamental. Unless it rethinks our traditional post-war partnerships, it risks an authoritarian Japan and a profoundly alienated Germany -- destroying one of the greatest legacies of the twentieth century.

原文鏈接：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bruce-ackerman/americas-tragic-turn-in-g_b_5587493.html